22.7% weight loss yet Novo Nordisk stock drops 27%
Novo Nordisk's new CagriSema drug showed weight loss results that are *stunning*, but less than what Wall Street expected.
Novo Nordisk (maker of Ozempic, Wegovy) had a rough day in the stock market on Friday. GLP1 receptor agonists have been incredibly effective so far, but there is still tremendous pressure on drug companies to produce ever better formulations and achieve even more weight loss.
Reuters reported on the massive 27% plunge in Novo Nordik's stock price:
Novo's new drug: CagriSema
CagriSema is a new drug under development by Novo Nordisk – it's a combination of two peptides:
- Cagrilintide
- Semaglutide
CagriSema is a "triple agonist", compared to the dual agonist Tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) produced by Eli Lilly which combines GIP and GLP1.
Check out our quick explainer
What happened? The REDEFINE 1 Trial
GLP1s are well known and well studied – GLP1 receptor agonists are likely the most soundly-backed (scientifically) effective weight loss solution ever invented. Being able to see the results of GLP1s in a clinical environment is key to building confidence in it's efficacy and safety.
CagriSema was undergoing human clinical trials, and Novo Nordisk recently announced some results:
Five years ago, stunning results like 22% weight loss after 68 weeks would be celebrated far and wide, but these days society is too used to the effectiveness of GLP1 receptor agonists – investors were disappointed in the performance of CagriSema in the trial.
Dig into the trial details for yourself at ClinicalTrials.gov:
This trial was large – 3,400 adults experienced "superior" weight loss on CagriSema. Even more phase 3 trials are ongoing (REDEFINE 2, 3 and 4) and will be completed in the future.
What the news is missing: Dosage details
What investors and the general public are likely overlooking is that only 57.3% of patients were treated with the highest dose. This means that while the average weight loss was 22.7%, it could have been much higher if more people were treated with the highest dose (similar to Semaglutide and Cagrilintide alone).
CagriSema is better than Cagrilintide or Semaglutide alone
One detail that sticks out from the press release is how impressively CagriSema as a combination worked:
When applying the treatment policy estimand2, people treated with CagriSema achieved a superior weight loss of 20.4% compared to a reduction of 11.5% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 14.9% with semaglutide 2.4 mg and 3.0% with placebo.
Weight loss of almost double either ingredient alone shows that Novo Nordisk is on to something huge – finding complimentary peptides has clearly paid off in increasing the benefit.
This is also likely to affect the patent landscape – being able to cover Semaglutide under an new patent may not affect the older expiring patent, but it does introduce some new formulations that will be protected.
GLP1.Guide Staff
There are more trials in the pipeline
In addition to all the ongoing and planned studies related to CagriSema, there are even more in just the phase 3 REDEFINE series trials:
REDEFINE 2
A Research Study to See How Well CagriSema Helps People With Type 2 Diabetes and Excess Body Weight Lose Weight
REDEFINE 3
A Research Study to See the Effects of CagriSema in People Living With Diseases in the Heart and Blood Vessels
Temporary Bad news for Novo Nordisk, great news for GLP1s
While Novo Nordisk investors certainly had a fit, the addition of new entrants to the GLP1 Receptor Agonist space means more accessibility, more choice, and more competition, with even better results.
While it may be a while until consumers can receive prescriptions CagriSema, it's likely to be very effective for patients and improve health outcomes for millions of people.
During this time, Semaglutide remains on the FDA's shortage list – another thing to watch going forward:
